India-Maldives row: Explaining the story so far

The diplomatic row between India and the Maldives began on social media and landed in the foreign ministries of both nations. It all began on January 4 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Lakshadweep and posted pictures of the beautiful island. While PM Modi had not mentioned the Maldives anywhere in his posts, many on social media began to question why anybody should go to the Maldives when we have such pristine beauty in India.

There is a context to this too. A change in government propped up an anti-India camp to power in the Maldives. President Mohamed Muizzu is seen as a pro-China man who, along with former President Abdullah Yameen, fronted the ‘India Out’ campaign during elections in the archipelagic state.

A massive social media war led to three Maldivian deputy ministers and a few MPs using derogatory language against PM Modi. What was a war among trolls was elevated to a diplomatic situation. India had to respond.

Maldives High Commissioner to India, Ibrahim Shaheeb, was summoned to the Ministry of External Affairs and informed about India’s strong concerns over comments by certain Maldivian ministers against PM Modi.

The Muizzu administration, on its part, has been trying to play both sides – China and India. Treading a cautious line, the Muizzu administration indefinitely suspended three of the officials. India Today was in Male and we discovered that many Maldivians were unhappy with the turn of events.

A prominent entrepreneur and chairman of the ADK Group Ahmed Nashid said, “All the associations (travel and tourism) have condemned the remarks (by ministers). This should not have happened. The current geopolitical differences, we should resolve diplomatically and decisively.”

Speaking to Indian tourists who landed in Malé for vacations, the sense that India Today got was that like most Maldivians, they also did not want soured ties between the two nations. One of the Indian tourists said, “This controversy might not affect tourism in the Maldives, but it might increase employment in Lakshadweep.”

Another spoke on PM Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep and said, “The visit was not to create a dispute. He was promoting India, and the Maldives has its own charm. One cannot replace the other.”

The Opposition in the Maldives has taken on the current dispensation on the row and has asked Parliament to summon the foreign minister and the deputy ministers.

Opposition MDP’s leader and MP Meekaail Ahmed Naseem, who approached Parliament with the summons said, “They need to be held to account. I don’t think this is being taken as seriously as it should be by the government. I think we, the Maldivian people, deserve a stronger and a more certain answer as to what the government of Maldives would be doing to resolve this issue.”

DIPLOMATIC AND STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF MALDIVES

While there were calls on social media with hashtags #BoycottMaldives or #ExploreIndia, the latter cannot replace the former or vice versa. India-Maldives relations are very important to both the countries. There have been many ups and downs in ties but India has never lost focus on the strategic importance of the near neighbour.

Politically, India was one of the first countries to recognise the Maldives’ independence and establish diplomatic relations. Over the years, these relations have been generally close and cordial. However, they have experienced fluctuations, particularly under the Maldives’ regimes that leaned towards China, such as under former President Abdulla Yameen.

Geographically, the Maldives is located in the Indian Ocean, close to India’s Lakshadweep Islands, placing it in a critical position along major sea lanes of communication. This makes the Maldives vital for India’s maritime security interests. India has established a networked coastal radar chain in the Maldives, which is integrated with its own coastal radar system, enhancing surveillance capabilities in the region.

Ahmed Faris Mamoun, leader of the Maldivian Reforms Movement and son of former President Mamoun, spoke of the importance of India in a common Maldivian’s day-to-day life.

“We do depend on Indian tourists’ arrivals. We have a lot of foreign investment coming from India. There are so many levels of engagement – politically, state-to-state, government-to-government. We have people-to-people and cultural engagements. Maldivians rely a lot on India for health services, for education. We feel India is a second home for most of us,” he said.

The Indian Coast Guard regularly patrols the area, and joint military exercises like ‘Ekuverin’ between the Indian Army and the Maldives National Defence Force are conducted annually to enhance counter-terrorism capabilities.

Historically, India has been a ‘first responder’ in times of crisis in the Maldives. This includes the intervention during the 1988 coup attempt in the Maldives, assistance during the 2004 tsunami, and support during the 2014 water crisis in Male. Additionally, India provided substantial help during the COVID-19 crisis, including financial, medical, and logistical support.

Former Maldivian Vice-President Faisal Naseem told India Today, “We have relations that go back decades to when we cannot even remember. India has always been there whenever India needed its assistance.”

India has been involved in numerous infrastructure and development projects in the Maldives, like the Greater Male Connectivity Project and the development of Gulhifalhu Port. India has also contributed to the healthcare and education sectors in the Maldives. The bilateral trade between the two countries has grown substantially over the years.

WHY SHOULD INDIA CEDE SPACE TO CHINA?

India and China’s presence in the Maldives has been shaped by their respective strategic interests and approaches towards the Indian Ocean archipelago.

China’s engagement with the Maldives significantly increased during Abdulla Yameen’s presidency, particularly in line with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing undertook major infrastructure projects, including the upgrading of the Maldives’ main international airport and the construction of a bridge linking Male to Hulhumale. This growing presence raised concerns about the Maldives’ indebtedness to China and the potential for “debt trap diplomacy.”

However, with the election of Mohamed Ibrahim Solih in 2018, there was a shift back towards closer ties with India, marked by Solih initiating an “India First” policy. This policy change led to India providing financial support for community development projects and infrastructure development in the Maldives.

India’s engagement with the Maldives has been multifaceted, encompassing defence, economic, and humanitarian aspects. India has historically been a first responder in times of crisis in the Maldives, such as during the 1988 coup attempt and the 2014 water crisis in Male. India’s approach is largely driven by the need to maintain stability and security in the Indian Ocean region. The Maldives’ strategic location makes it an important partner for India in terms of maritime security, counter-terrorism, and regional stability.

The recent “India Out” campaign in the Maldives, led by former President Yameen and current President Muizzu, has posed challenges for India-Maldives relations. This campaign protests the perceived undermining of Maldivian sovereignty due to the presence of Indian military personnel and India’s growing influence in the Maldives. This domestic political movement in the Maldives reflects a complex interplay of national sovereignty concerns and external influences.

In terms of regional stability, the dynamics between India, China, and the Maldives are significant. The rivalry between India and China in the Indian Ocean region has implications for regional power balance and maritime security. The Maldives, caught in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war, faces the challenge of balancing its relationships with both regional powers. The outcome of this balancing act has broader implications for the stability and security of the Indian Ocean region.

The importance of the Maldives to both India and China stems from its strategic location and the broader geopolitical contest in the Indian Ocean. The evolving dynamics of these relationships will continue to shape the regional landscape, impacting not just the bilateral ties but also the overall stability of the region.