How INDIA bloc came with a self-destruct button

The rainbow Opposition alliance that emerged on the horizon ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has now given way to thunderstorms. At the centre of the storm, which has been threatening to shred the bloc apart, is its biggest constituent, the Congress. However, this might have been a foregone conclusion, and the INDIA bloc might have been born with a self-destruct button.

The opposition INDIA bloc seems to be weathering a storm of its own making. Three INDIA bloc constituents — Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) — threw their weight behind the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for the Delhi Assembly polls. This even as the Congress, the bloc’s biggest constituent, is fighting the AAP tooth and nail.

Even as the AAP saw parties backing it, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav on Wednesday said that the INDIA grouping was meant solely for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. And just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse, National Conference leader and Jammu and Kashmir CM Omar Abdullah delivered another blow, suggesting that the INDIA bloc should be disbanded altogether.

In light of the bickering between the AAP and Congress ahead of the Delhi elections, the cracks in the INDIA bloc have gone from whispers to shouts. Aren’t these on expected lines?

Political analyst and author Rasheed Kidwai told India Today TV in December that the opposition alliance was dead for all practical purposes.

There are three key reasons why the INDIA bloc came with a self-destruct button, and an implosion was just a matter of time.

THREE REASONS WHY INDIA BLOC IS SEEING INFIGHTING

The INDIA bloc came with a self-destruct button because it was just a matter of time that the regional parties would review their ties with the Congress and treat it as best as a junior partner. They would be wary of nourishing the Congress, and there are three big reasons for that.

One, the INDIA coalition, was formed with the sole purpose of countering the BJP in the general election. With the election done and dusted, the grouping, which lacks an ideological commonality, has lost its cohesion. For state polls, there are regional alliances, subsets of the INDIA bloc, in place. Resultantly, Congress allies in Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Delhi and Maharashtra have shown signs of lack of discord.

Two, the regional parties have realised the political paradox. The INDIA bloc is ending up bolstering the Congress, which fails in head-to-head fights with the BJP. For the Congress to grow, the parties will have to compromise on their strength. The results of the Jammu and Kashmir and Lok Sabha elections show that the Congress stumbled in head-to-head fights with the BJP.

Three, the state-based parties have seen that their contribution has delivered a booster shot to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi while hurting the national ambitions of their leaders. Rahul is now the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.

NO ELECTORAL COMPULSION FOR INDIA BLOC TO BE KEPT ALIVE

With no elections looming in the next two years to glue them together, the INDIA bloc seems less a necessity and more a nostalgia trip. No wonder Rasheed Kidwai quipped that the alliance is “dead for all practical purposes”.

There are two big elections in 2025, in Delhi and Bihar.

In Delhi for the February election, the AAP, which was ignored by the Congress in the Haryana polls, is going solo and taking on the challenge from the BJP as well as the Congress.

The next big test is going to be in Bihar in October or November. There is already a regional Mahagathbandhan of Congress-RJD-Left in place to take on the BJP-JD(U)-LJP coalition, where the Grand Old Party is a junior partner and doesn’t have a bigger role to play.

The big elections in 2026 are in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

In Assam, the Congress is the challenger to the BJP, while in West Bengal it is a small player, with the fight likely between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is a junior partner to the DMK and will have to contend with seats doled out to it. In Kerala, the Congress is raring to dislodge the CPI-M, which has two-term anti-incumbency stacked against it.

Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the CPM and the Congress, constituents of the INDIA bloc, fought each other.

Therefore, in all the elections till 2026, either the Congress is taking on the BJP or the CPM on its own or is a junior partner, either to the RJD or the DMK. None of the situations requires the INDIA bloc arrangement.

Moreover, two INDIA bloc partners, JD(U), led by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, who united the Opposition parties under the banner this summer, and Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, have already quit the INDIA bloc even before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

REGIONAL PARTIES HAVE SEEN THE RESULT OF A STRONGER CONGRESS

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress ended up almost doubling its tally to 99 seats from the 54 in the 2019 election.

A lot of that had to do with the seats sacrificed by parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress won six of the 17 seats in UP in 2024 as it partnered with the SP.

In contrast, the Congress, which went solo in UP in the Lok Sabha 2019 election, won just the Rae Bareli seat.

Winning 37 seats, the SP is now the third-largest party in the Lok Sabha after the BJP and the Congress. Wouldn’t it have crossed SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s mind what if his party had contested the 17 seats it sacrificed for the Congress?

That the Congress needed the state parties as crutches was rubbed in by NC leader Omar Abdullah after the J&K Assembly election.

While the NC won 42 of the 51 seats it contested, the Congress won just 6 of the 32 seats.

“The alliance with the Congress wasn’t about seats for us. We would have won the seats without the Congress, except probably one of them,” NC leader Omar Abdullah said immediately after the J&K Assembly polls.

On Thursday, Omar questioned the very existence of the INDIA grouping.

‘INDIA BLOC JUST FOR LOK SABHA POLLS’, SAY ABDULLAH AND TEJASHWI

Recently, the suspicion and wariness towards the Congress was revealed by Omar and Tejashwi.

Omar Abdullah said the INDIA bloc should be disbanded as the opposition wasn’t united. He lamented the lack of clarity on the bloc’s future after the 2024 polls.

“It is unfortunate that no meeting of the INDIA bloc has taken place. Who will lead? What will be the agenda? How will the alliance move forward? There is no discussion on these issues. There is no clarity on whether we will remain united or not,” Abdullah said.

“If it was only for the Lok Sabha elections, then end the alliance. But, if it is to continue for the [Delhi] Assembly elections as well, then we must work together,” he added.

Abdullah’s remark comes a day after former Bihar deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav (of the RJD, part of the INDIA bloc) said the INDIA bloc had been formed specifically for the Lok Sabha polls.

“It was already decided that INDIA Bloc was for the Lok Sabha election. If we talk about Bihar, here we were together even before under the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led alliance with Congress and Left parties),” said Tejashwi.

CONGRESS ALLIES SUPPORT AAP AGAINST CONGRESS

Omar’s remarks, direct and explicit, with Tejashwi’s more measured one, came as three INDIA bloc allies, the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), declared their support for Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP in the Delhi elections, where the party faces off against Congress.

The backing for the AAP came after the Congress’ Maharashtra allies, including the Shiv Sena (UBT), softened their stance on the BJP following a heated Assembly election campaign. Then there are calls for reconciliation in Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.

Even before the episode, several constituents of the bloc were at loggerheads with the Congress over its Adani protests and blaming electronic voting machines (EVMs) for election losses.

A month back in December, during the winter session of Parliament, the Congress faced criticism from allies like the TMC and Samajwadi Party for disrupting proceedings over the Adani indictment, as some partners preferred the Parliament to function. The TMC accused the Congress of hijacking the Opposition agenda in Parliament with its anti-Adani protests. The Samajwadi Party, too, didn’t agree with the Congress on its priority.

Then there was the EVM issue. The National Conference berated the Congress for blaming election losses in Haryana and Maharashtra on EVMs.

Differences in the bloc were again out in the open in December when RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav put his weight behind Mamata Banerjee to lead the bloc. Sharad Pawar too reacted, saying the Bengal CM was a “capable leader”. The Samajwadi Party, too, hinted at its stance, saying that Mallikarjun Kharge was “the leader of the INDIA bloc”.

The INDIA bloc seems to be dead for all practical purposes, and that is nothing surprising as it came with a self-destruct button from its inception.