Across the country, election authorities are making plans to hold mid-pandemic elections while keeping voters safe. But with two federal party leaders now self-isolating after being exposed to COVID-19, just how safe might a campaign be for the politicians doing the campaigning?
New Brunswick just completed a provincial election without issues. Saskatchewan is preparing for its scheduled election in October. Elections officials have been focusing primarily on measures to protect voters — things like physical distancing, masks and disinfectant at polling stations, a moratorium on door-to-door canvassing and the end of large rallies.
On Wednesday, as the number of new cases in Canada increased again, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dismissed the concerns of those who say holding an election in the middle of a pandemic is reckless.
“I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” he said. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out. I don’t think that’s what Canadians want, I don’t think it’s what opposition parties want and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”
Watch: Prime Minister Trudeau on the prospects for a fall election
But the last few days have demonstrated how the best-laid plans of politicians and party strategists can always be upended by COVID-19.
On Tuesday, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet announced he would get tested and was self-isolating after his wife, Nancy Déziel, tested positive for the coronavirus. Members of his caucus are also self-isolating after a staff member tested positive.
On Wednesday, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole announced that he and his family were self-isolating after a staff member with whom he had travelled tested positive for the disease.
It’s now possible that the leaders of the two largest opposition caucuses in the House of Commons will not be in Parliament when the speech from the throne is read next week. They could even miss being there in person for the all-important confidence vote following the speech that could trigger a general election.
MPs have had the capability to both address Parliament and vote remotely since the spring, so O’Toole and Blanchet will still have their say.
But what if they’d been diagnosed on the campaign trail?
Two weeks is the length of time recommended by public health authorities for self-isolation after exposure to COVID-19. In a five-week election campaign, two weeks is an eternity.
Politicians: a high-risk population?
Voters might not be the ones we have to worry about. Already, three of the five major party leaders are known to have been near someone with COVID-19 at various points in time. Trudeau self-isolated in March after his wife, Sophie Grégoire-Trudeau, tested positive.
Politicians travel widely and meet with lots of different people, so perhaps it’s not surprising they face a higher risk of exposure. But politicians also haven’t always been the best role models when it comes to following public health guidelines.
A member of O’Toole’s campaign team posted a photo on social media the day of his leadership victory in Ottawa showing 32 people crowded together for a group photo. Only one person was wearing a mask.
Ontario’s public health guidelines stipulate a social circle of no more than 10 people, including members of a household. Outside of this circle, people are supposed to practise physical distancing and wear masks.
When New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs strode to the podium on Monday night to celebrate his party’s win in the provincial election, he wore only a full face shield. Some health authorities say that a face shield “is not a substitute for wearing a face mask as it does not filter respiratory droplets.”
On Wednesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford defended his recent presence at a crowded outdoor wedding, saying a photo of him without a mask was taken during a brief moment when he stood up.
In June, Trudeau was criticized for attending an anti-racism demonstration in Ottawa. Although he wore a mask, physical distancing was not possible in that setting and the crowd was significantly larger than the provincial limits on outdoor gatherings.
Trudeau also had to defend spending the Easter holiday at the prime minister’s official summer residence in Quebec at a time when Ontario residents were being told not to visit their cottages across the river.
Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer came under fire in July after being spotted maskless at Toronto’s Pearson Airport.
This list of Canadian politicians failing to live up to public health guidelines is hardly exhaustive. But aside from a few explanations and mea culpas, there haven’t been many consequences — unlike in Ireland, for example, where this kind of thing has resulted in scandal and resignations.
Campaigning in quarantine
There are many public health risks associated with holding an election in the middle of a pandemic. Elections officials will work to mitigate those risks but there is no certainty they will be successful.
New Brunswick pulled off its provincial election without any apparent outbreak; fewer than 10 new cases were confirmed over the course of the campaign. But COVID-19 has been contained in New Brunswick, as it has been in the rest of Atlantic Canada. Since the beginning of the pandemic, New Brunswick has seen fewer cases than Ontario reported in a single day on Wednesday.
Saskatchewan has experienced more spikes in the caseload but Premier Scott Moe is only following his province’s legislated electoral schedule. His Saskatchewan Party holds a wide lead in the polls and, barring an upset of historic proportions, is likely to win another majority government next month.
Things are more uncertain in British Columbia, where speculation is rife that Premier John Horgan will soon pull the plug on his minority government ahead of next year’s scheduled vote.
B.C. has seen a surge in new cases and hospitalizations are now at their highest level in four months.
There’s no way to know how the situation will change over the course of a four- or five-week election campaign. Horgan’s New Democrats are well ahead of the B.C. Liberals in the polls; that’s unusual for two parties that have had relatively stable support in elections since 2005.
A new spike in cases could undermine Horgan’s support, making it easier for the other leaders to accuse him of recklessness — an accusation that did not work against Higgs in comparatively tranquil New Brunswick.
No party can plan ahead for a leader being missing from the campaign trail for several weeks during an election campaign.
How do you run a debate when one or more of the leaders is unable to leave home?
How would a federal election campaign function when any politician entering Atlantic Canada has to undertake a mandatory 14-day quarantine? And how would long-suffering voters react to a party leader who ignored that rule?
Ottawa’s chief medical officer has described how a single case of COVID-19 at a cottage mushroomed into 40 cases across the city. What would happen if a leader’s visit to a riding is revealed to be at the root of a new outbreak? An entire region of the country might have to be written off by that party on election night.
The complications and problems involved in running an election during a pandemic are not limited to mask availability, the amount of space available for voting in school gymnasiums or how much sanitizer election authorities can get their hands on.
Political leaders in Ottawa, B.C. and elsewhere in the country mulling an early election call have much to think about. They might want to think about it twice.